[26 January/Bloomberg]

Rabobank’s analysts have sought to predict what could happen to British and European agriculture under a no-deal Brexit. Amongst well known effects like faster UK food inflation due to a weaker pound, and spoiled produce due to border delays, the bank listed lesser publicised effects in their report including surplus grain supplies and lower prices if EU biofuel policies are not continued in the UK as there would be less incentive to make ethanol (benefiting livestock feed makers amongst others), changes in the competitive dynamics of the sugar industry and incremental costs for UK companies if UK certified seeds, livestock, and plant variety testing is no longer be valid in the EU (and potentially force UK companies to seek for EU authorisation to continue exports). The concerns of the Irish Backstop also featured in the Rabobank analysis, which noted that a hard border with Ireland may make it too costly to take milk, live animals, barley and alcohol across the border, which means companies trading on both sides could be forced to separate their operations.