[10 April/Farmers Weekly]

The BNZ Economics Research group have forecast a price of $6.10/kg for milksolids. Senior Economist, Doug Steel, said global dairy prices were expected to fall in 2018 but the fall was moderated with the strong Euro currency. Mr Steele assumed that milk powder prices would remain between US$2,900 to US$3,300 per tonne. If whole milk powder prices were to persist at those levels generated by the BNZ model, a price of $6.70 would be generated. The downside scenario forecast a price of $5.50 whereas the upside scenario forecast a price of $7.20. The scenarios leading to higher or lower milk prices seemed unlikely due to recent price stability. Mr Steele noted that it would be foolish to think that volatility could not return. He said the farmgate milk price was hard to forecast due to the nature of the international dairy market.